Hi, Blasters
Weekly post time
I have chosen to post today because it is an especially significant day! You’ll see in my timing analysis below that we are currently at ~50% through our Phase 3 trial (estimated using the mid-point of both Scenarios indicated by the ASX announcement, Dr Grossman and other sources that enrolment will take “three to four months to complete” with a 30-day primary end-point). More on this below.
ResponsesI usually only read posts with 5 or more likes (or a light-bulb) so apologise if my estimates on timing have already been covered.
I try to always keep track on anyone that has tagged me and had any queries:
@dachopper on my
full MSB valuation (i.e. not only US ARDS as I have previously provided) and whether my forecast share price is four digits. While I’m not going to share the figures just yet as it still needs some work, let’s just say if you’ve invested $50k at $2 per share and you have 40 summers left, you can quite easily enjoy $100k pa as capital gains over the 40 years. You can actually work back from this and estimate my share price figure! For the full business and future share value, it can certainly be worth over $1,000 per share if almost
everything goes its way – just like any other investment
@barewire – I’ve spent most of my life in Auckland, about six years in Wellington but haven’t lived in The Land of the Long White Cloud for a few years now. I have been living in Dubai for a while before moving to Sydney (“the wrong side of the ditch”) a couple of years ago – I’ll probably lose a few likes for that comment!
The Thing on Everyone’s Mind – TimingI have done some analysis on timing. What I’m most interested in, is the “Full Trial Results Available” date per my table below. Sure, we could reach efficacy at 30% / stop early, but I’m basing my mindset and expectations on the actual end of trial date (which allows for 30 days to reach the primary end-point and 15 days for the data to be considered).
As you deduce, today being 13 July means we are 55% progressed through Scenario A (three months for enrolment) or 45% through Scenario B (four months for enrolment) – so estimated 50% through the entire trial as a best estimate!
But that is not what most people are waiting for or trying to guess… The 30% date! While I have always maintained mid-July, it was largely based on my estimates presented for your benefit here plus a few days to act as a buffer. You must note these tables (almost certainly incorrectly) assume that recruitment takes place on a linear basis. It does not. However, due to lack of additional data, I have made this assumption for a best estimate.
On these assumptions, the readout is due
any day now. This puts me in a pickle because as I have raised in my previous posts – I get my monthly pay on the 15th and for me to receive, move it across a couple of borders and invest means it may be until the 20th until I can buy more! As such, I am very selfishly in no rush for this announcement
On the Lighter Side & Again What’s Different / Changed? Nothing!@Jakeo17 rightly pointed out I was a "brave" man to write my previous post when I received a message to go to bed or choose between “your fans or your female”. I delivered for my fans; however, I have since received this:
To keep her happy, I will attempt to write this next part in a not “too sexy” manner.
Bro0o0o0o0o... Why are these peeps on H-Cop even tripping over 20c ups and downs? Are they going to actually sell if it goes down to $3? Or take some cream if it hits $4?! Nah, they won’t. But straight up, WHY do they wanna give themselves heart attacks when it isn’t even something they can control or act on man?! I mean, even if it went to $3 and Prof Sizzle still hadn’t holla’d at the world with a “yo we succeeded” or with a “yo - my bad haha, we failed” – what would you do? Nuttin. You just gon wait for results. On top of alla that, we got some real bawses like
@LeftYahoo@stanjupiter@stokdog@Tunnah@Treed@The Yankee posting straight fire facts showing some legit embers from da streetz that are all thinking MSB gon win win win! These articles, policies, interviews and news releases make me feel better than my boy Teddy P serenading my ears with Turn off the Lights. Errybody just lax, we ain’t far now.
I realise I may not receive many light-bulbs for this last paragraph and I sincerely apologise if it gave you anxiety – it was equally challenging for to write.Happy Monday
Kia kaha
AM.
(20min delay)