RAC - Charts & Price Action, page-47

Hi EW

for me the logic for the current rally is twofold;
1. followers of the strategic investors
2. the fundamentals.

1 adds a short term kicker over the coming weeks.

2 drives growth for years as the market digests the true potential. This business is now fundamentally worth a discounted and risked valuation of its market or buyout value. IMHO that market or buyout value under the 5-path strategy is $US2B+ for AML and then multiples for BC and OC. The COH paper adds an entire new path (actually more like a multi-lane Highway than a path). At this stage I choose $US5B as a peg in the sand on the valuation that could range from $US2B to potentially orders of magnitude higher than that.

For me, a share price above $5 this month or next would be a bit toppy but anywhere below that I'm a "buy" until Christmas.

Based on a personal view of risk and the discount rate an individual would like to use you can imply a share price today. I challenge anyone to come up with a logical and consistent FA that gives a share price valuation for today that's below $4; it will be a good leveler for the forum.