Hi Allyoops,
As you recognise, there are a lot of uncertainties, but fwiw here’s some initial (rough) thoughts/possibilities:
1. Mt Cat reserves / mine life likely (imo) to be extended via further exploration; spod pricing is anyone’s guess - I reckon we will see new highs (circa $1000/t..?) when the Li shortfall takes shape in a few years and battery co’s are really scrambling for supply again. 200ktpa+ SC for next 5+ years..?
2. SDV producing first product (primary grade) from S1 in late 2022. 10,000 tpa (perhaps 12ktpa?) from start of 2023..? Sale price circa $10k/t..? Margin >$5k/t.
3. SDV expansion over the following 2 years (2023 and 2024); growing to 25ktpa and producing battery-grade product via S1+S2 which includes purification facility. First year of full production: 2025..?
Potential imo for further expansion to 50ktpa.
Sale price of BG chemicals circa $15k-$25k /t from 2025...? Margin >>$10k/t.
4. James Bay... tough one! 40ktpa LCE target; circa 320ktpa SC...? Potential for downstream conversion..?
First production circa 2026...?
Don’t forget potential partnerships and the associated effective dilution.
Big $ required for SDV + JB + conversion!
We could tick along more slowly and ultimately pay for development of SDV and JB ourselves, but I think that we will accelerate with JV’s of some sort due to high demand and suitable deals.
Please share your draft model as it takes shape - would be interested to see and contribute if possible!
The above is just some loose estimates/possibilities btw! The likes of asb and co will relentlessly criticise of course, but we all know they aren’t interested at all in any form of detailed assessment or scenario analyses like this.
