Hi James70
I liked your post and the way you have constructed your forecasts.
Would hope you continue to post in the future.
However would draw your attention to your by product revenue calculations. The Cu Zn and Pb price averages for the June quarter were lower than the March quarter.
By product credits for the March quarter were $27.5m, therefore your estimates for the June quarter would appear to be too high. While copper production was up and shipment timing may have played a part, what you seem to be missing is the deductions the smelters charge the miners to process the concentrates. These are in addition to the treatment and refining charges that the smelters charge. As an example for zinc concentrates the charge is 15%.
Therefore if the zinc concentrate grade is a standard 51%, the smelter would pay for 43.3% of the contained zinc in the concentrate after deducting the 15%. There are also smelter deductions for lead and copper conc.
In addition treatment charges for zinc and lead concentrates were at record high levels for the June Quarter.
My model would indicate an AISC of around A$1400/oz for the June Quarter.
Going forward my model is estimating earning in excess of $100m pa for the next two years as production of all metals will increase due to higher grades and volume. Also treatment charges for all concentrates have fallen rapidly due to supply disruptions from South America in particular. However, will wait for the quarterly to refine numbers and post.
Can be contacted on [email protected] if you want further information on concentrate terms.
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