RCL Metrics

Here's a view of my spreadsheet summarising different quarters.



Since the quarters are so volatile, I find the 'rolling 4 periods' metrics to be useful. For example, this:



Once Total Expenses falls below 100% of receipts, that means the company is cashflow positive. The trend does look like it'll reach cashflow positive fairly soon, for a full rolling year. To keep up that trend toward improving margins, I expect they just need to keep up the growth in users and revenue.

From the June announcement, they reported $7.3m revenue YTD (to end of May, I think). So $7.3m revenue for 11 months?

Compare that to $5.676m receipts in the most recent rolling 4 quarters. So I expect before long, receipts will also break $7.3m for a rolling 4 quarter period, assuming no bad debtors.

I'd guess at that point they'll be break even or maybe profitable. For another company, you'd ask 'which will be their first break even quarter?'. For this company, with such volatility in receipts, we have to wait for the first break even rolling year.

This next rolling-periods chart, I find useful to visualise the metrics over time.



Receipts and Orange Total Expenses are on RHS (in thousands). Others are as proportions on LHS. Most of note:

1. Rolling Receipts is approaching Total Expenses, to become profitable soon, I think.
2. All expense categories (Staff, Product Operating Costs, and Fixed Expenses) are falling relative to revenue. So they all must be benefiting from some fixed costs, or economies of scale. All looks like a good trend to me.


Then the following chart is a bit messy, but shows how a lot of the expenses are quite fixed.


It's not a rolling-periods chart, so it's more volatile. You can see how they had a mix of cashflow positive and cash burn quarters recently, where the blue line (receipts) pushed above the maroon line (total expenses).

I'm liking the look of the trends. As long as they keep growing usage, then the future is looking bright in terms of financial metrics.