Centro has spent the last year being beaten, chastised and sold off by... erm.. pretty much everybody.
The name Centro and anything associated with the name is mud in the investment community.
CER shareholders have lost a combined $2,100,000,000 alone in the last 18 months (SP high was about $2, minus current SP times 1.1bn shares not owned by CNP).
This isn't even counting the millions and millions of dollars that have been lost through trading the stock by countless small players, most of whom have packed up and moved elsewhere. Not to mention the billions and billions of dollars lost on CNP.
If you take a quick poll of 1000 random people and ask them what they think of Centro, I am sure the majority will either shudder, develop a nervous twitch or just tell you they would prefer not to speak about it.
With all of the major investment houses either withdrawing or scaling back their coverage of Centro, I reckon the number of people who still know CER inside out could be squeezed into a large boardroom with just enough room for a plate of sandwiches. There aren't many left. Most of these people have either been burned badly already or fear for their own reputations in recommending the stock. You would be a very lone voice in the investment community if you stood up and told your clients to put their funds into CER over just about any other Australian REIT, listed or private, currently.
So, out of the 2,200ish other companies on the ASX, where do you think investors (who have lost billions and billions of dollars in the last 12 months and are currently overcome with fear) are currently putting their money?
That's right.. in the 1,000 or so companies who aren't perceived as debt-laden, high profile, teetering-on-the-end victims of the credit crunch.
There is a very small group of people known as value investors who specialise in analysing and investing in companies just like CER. Companies like Orbis come to mind. They have already taken positions in the business and are doing what they do best.... waiting. They will wait 1, 2, maybe 5 years and have the staying power and funds to do so.
All that remains are speculators, momentum investors and small time punters. They have been victim to the downward 'snowball' effect that I have written about in the last few days and are probably either in the process of unwinding or funding the painful CFD / margined / T+x losses or not wanting to hold overnight for fear of a long trading halt pre-announcement.
The net result is covered in Economics 101. More sellers than buyers. You know the rest.
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