Hey mate,
I don't think the high $POG is not unsustainable and I think it can go US$2000 and stay there for a while.
However, I've notice that the high $POG has not been reflected on WAF share price albeit WAF is 100% unhedged with low AISC (unconfirmed), so the WAF rockets should be blasting the WAF share price.
I suspect it's because people are waiting for 2021 Production Guidance and/or confirmation that in any given month, WAF has produced at least 20,000oz (ie 240,000oz/year for example). Therefore, because $POG has pretty much zero impact on WAF's share price, I prefer $POG to stay around US$1800 which is already very profitable for WAF.
Once, WAF gives 2021 Production Guidance or confirmation that in any given month, we have produced 20,000oz/month, then I want $POG to make the move.
I'm not saying I don't think $POG at US$1900 is not sustainable, but until we get gold production at 20,000oz/month or more, we are not getting rewarded with WAF's share price.
Furthermore, I prefer to err on the side of caution and plan worst case scenario, ie $POG moves to US$1900 then drops back to US$1700 even though deep inside I believe that $POG will stay high for a very long time.
Per my other posts, I don't believe finding the vaccine will be the end of high $POG as global economies will feel the after effect with global debts, inflation, trade hostilities among other things.
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I read somewhere (and people forget), first we need to find a vaccine, then we need to look for money which has been spent on government stimulus but lastly people forget that 'World Government have lost their expected income/tax receipts.' For example,
https://www.ft.com/content/73ccc06d-18f0-4d1e-95a0-79736f05556a'A$95bn ($68bn) fall in tax receipts in the 2020 and 2021 financial years and A$164bn in additional public spending has turned a forecast budget surplus into deficits of 4.3 per cent of gross domestic product in the year to end June 2020 and 9.7 per cent this financial year, which ends June 30 2021'
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My point is deep inside, realistically, I believe that the high $POG is sustainable.
However, from an erring on the side of caution and worst case scenario planning point of view, that since WAF has not yet got the full benefit of the high $POG due to our infancy in production, I prefer $POG to stay around US$1800 rather than moves to an all time high then drops (even though it may stay up high).
-- Sorry in advance, if what I'm saying does not make sense --
(20min delay)