longterm buy, page-7

  1. 631 Posts.
    My back of envelope calcs (now from memory so Ill probably get it wrongish):

    Assets about 210m, Tangibles 190m give or take.. 30m cash..
    Current LIabilities 30m, Non current 30m of borrowings all give or take.

    NPAT in 08 75m... current market cap still a little high @ 800m odd ... putting it on a PE of 11x or so.. not yet cheap...

    However -
    ROA historically been 75/210 or 36% - thas as good as any... and debt is very very low - quite attractive in such times!

    Question is, what will future earnings be...
    I expect that much of their sales will be already contracted for some time ahead - no idea how much - havent looked.. but lets be conservative and cut earnings over next 2 years down to 50m/year ... although management has proven to be smart and shrewd... the Bassats are shrewd operators... good board etc.

    Forward ROA becomes 50m / 210 sill strong @ 25%...

    My long term question on Seek has always been how will it grow... already strong market share here and I dont think it will outcompete local operations in other countries - leaving it to find things to expand into like training (which is what it has done) - non-core add ons my opinion - mind you they sell them quite well under the pressure tactic of 'get a better job with these [overpriced] online training courses' - so they have found synergies there...

    I cant see ROA continuing at such strong levels and Im sure earnings will be diminished. I looked at it long and hard @ time of listing [2-3 yrs ago?] and rejected it then @ 2.20 / share when it was making 35m odd... I just thought it was too expensive on PEs of 18 ... and in his climate I still think i too high @ 11x

    ... below $2 I think it starts to get interesting if it gets there.. and @ 1.50 is a nice bargain.

    Cant help but think of seek as a website [thats my personal prejudice, I know], even though they are more like a media company - but how market can value SEEK as high as 1/3 the value of Fairfax or more has always eluded me... (then again so has farifaxes 6.5b of intangibles...!)
 
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Last
$24.04
Change
-0.150(0.62%)
Mkt cap ! $8.587B
Open High Low Value Volume
$24.12 $24.43 $23.99 $21.09M 874.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
3 3852 $24.03
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$24.20 131 2
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Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
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