That's OK Miles and I are old sparring partners. Sometimes I wish I had his tenacity in the face of continuing defeat, he is a man of iron.
I enjoy his posts because the differing views make for a more interesting holistic view.
I still wonder though when he will finally accept that it just doesn't work the way he wishes it to work.
Miles,
I still maintain that property is about to boom yet again but I have started to think that it will not be so much a recession which will slow property value growth.
I have started to think that it will more likely be that capital values will grow too quickly for rents to keep up. When rental returns are not as attractive compared to selling prices then things will slow down as they have always done before.
Additionally, at some point in time, interest rates will have to rise again. People who have locked in at these low levels will not care but newcomers will have to weigh up the cost of new finance, the much higher capital values and the relatively lower rents.
Again, this is all old news it has all happened before and will happen again.
The plateau to boom to plateau takes about 2-3 years, it is hard to be too accurate.
Generally speaking property prices (city wide) will be relatively flat (about 3% above inflation) for about 6-7 years and then boom for about 2-3 years. The cycles are generally about 10 years overall.
I know you will be saying (yet again) that it is different this time but, honestly, isn't your faith becoming a bit shaky in that regard?
