Hi Gator21 and all,
Thanks for the discussion.
On the demand side does anyone have a recent report that estimates demand growth? I have seen:
(1) 1.5% base case from Edison 's 2019 Helium Report
(2) 3.0% bull case from Edison's 2019 Helium Report
(3) 7.0% CAGR from Gianni Kovacevic's Feb 2020 Cambridge House presentation (unsourced). I do note that Gianni is a promoter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gse_Y7kF770(4) From Mordor Intelligence they estimate c <4% CAGR
It also looks like CV19 has disrupted ST demand (neg 10-15%), although that is not a major concern for longer duration investors:
https://www.gasworld.com/helium-covid-19-cuts-shortage-as-demand-drops/2018756.article[As a side note from the above article, I am not sure that I like the fact that 10% of global demand for He is "party balloons". I would think that would be highly price elastic].
On the supply side, the latest news from Gazprom suggests that Amur is on-time and is commencing commissioning of the first 2 x trains.
https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2020/may/article506052/When you look at the location of Amur, it is obvious that their primary market will be China (and not the US):
https://www.gazprom.com/projects/amur-gpp/BNL / DME are interesting speculations at this point. I want to see more analytical data from both of these companies re project metrics, ROI's, anticipated pricing / duration of contracts, etc, but recognize that at that point the SP's will likely be much higher.
Cheers
John
(20min delay)