merry crashmas, page-50

gg

I am loving this talk and please don't think I am saying you are wrong.

It is great to have a counter view as it makes me rethink my views.

VIX looks less like forming a conventional triangle and maybe will form a flat bottomed version which would ultimately be bullish in time, though the fact it is still extremely high is amazing considering the sideways to bullish price action.

DJTA needs to be making new highs, as I understand Dow theory, to confirm a bull market the DJIA also needs to follow and that is miles away. I have to say that Dow theory has never worked for me and is almost a contrary indication in recent years.

I would love to see a rally into April from here but the market pattern seems to need a new low and March seems to have much in its favour as a low.

As well we have all the oversold indicators becoming neutral with little upside suggesting a pause before more downside.

Then we have little in the way of momentum divergences which once again suggests a new price low not confirmed by momentum as a good signal.

My thoughts with BHP etc was for an Oct/Nov low and a rally into April so I certainly am not over committing myself towards anything.

All the best and thanks for the exchange of ideas.