merry crashmas, page-69

I would like to make a reasoned contribution if I may...

After putting what I've read here and in McLaren's materials into a blender and giving it a good burst on medium before adding a few moments concentrating on the S&P500 daily chart and giving the blender another burst on high for a minute or so, here's what I've come up with for what may happen next week and why...

The last time the S&P500 had two consecutive down days was the final drive down into the November low. Since then we have a completed five wave move up into yesterday's high over three weeks. That move has also produced a weak three trust pattern into the high, although the final thrust may not be complete (that's the caveat). The move up since the November low has struggled relative to recent movements, and been unable (so far) to reach 68.2% retracement of the range down from the November high (1007), which is 922. It has gotten over 5/8 of that range (which is 907 and change) and fallen back and produced a double top with a few point variation.

All that suggests to me next week will bring in weakness (subject to the caveat of the final thrust not being complete, but that would seem to me to be a few days of up at best and that would have to contend with the complete 5 wave structure and double top). Weakness fits with what Danube's analysis of yesterday suggests from a historical perspective and what the experts here are suggesting. So perhaps a struggle down next week then a final burst up of a few days to end the year (29 December for a high is the suggested date of Laundry) before the move down can get legs.

Oh, and if it's down and not just small range on the S&P tonight then the caveat is removed.

That's the way it seems to me as things currently stand. I hope this assists some although I know some will find I'm merely stating the obvious.

I'm off to the beach...

Chris