@Mont3y Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts. Posts like yours are a dime in a few dozens of useless, speculative, uninformative drivel.
However, the models you have drawn raises more questions than answers for me.
If we are talking about WINEDEPOT's Direct to consumer model:
Dan specifically mentions the impossibility of getting next day delivery of wine from winery to consumer due to last mile logistics. So the setting up of warehouse space within auspost warehouses solves this problem. But this means there *is* a warehouse in DW8's chain for direct to consumer. That warehouse has storage and handling costs. However Dean also says that they don't have inventory yet operates depots around Australia, how does this work? If it's just outsourcing the storage and delivery to Auspost, then how does this cost differ to Dan operating their own warehouse?
If we are talking about their B2B marketplace:
Let's say Dan orders from DW8 instead of Pinnacle.
If DW8 dropships, there is no delivery speed advantage that retailers can offer consumers.
Unless they are storing anticipated orders in a local warehouse, there is no transportation cost reduction, in fact, I would argue dropshipping *increases* transportation cost because there'll be more frequent, smaller orders.
If there is a warehouse, then the only difference is that DW8 replaces Pinnacle in your first model and some of the warehouse, online arrows point in different ways. The point here is the main entities represented in your model remains the same, which leads me to think your model is over simplified and does not capture whatever advantage Dean wants to bring to the industry.
Dean speaks about current distributors taking a 30-35% margin + marketing cost, they already have the distribution networks in place. What is to stop them reducing their profit margin to compete?
Then there are existing B2B distributors, a few large players that deliver to commercial consumers. These already have established relationships with their reps and likely good ongoing loyalty deals. I haven't heard anything about *how* DW8 plans to disrupt this market other than the mention of the large profit margins. It would seem to me here that their only strategy is in being cheaper by offering a unstaffed, logistics platform the B2B Marketplace. Dean does mention that he wants the platform to be like what online trading did for the stock market.
Online trading made the market more liquid, but it also exposed some companies for what they were, scams. Put in terms of wine, would this level of direct competition between end products for consumer attention 'level the playing field' as it were because consumers have more options. I wonder what the outcome of this would be for consumer purchasing patterns and for licensed venues.
In all, I now have another week of research ahead of me, thanks to the webinar...
(20min delay)