The parrallel question is why thousands of idiotic bogans such as Eve Black still believe the virus to be a "Hoax"; and
Another problem is the soft crap from the PM and National Cabinet and their "middle ground" message. There is no such thing as suppression. There is no middle ground.
My numbers based gut feel is that NSW as something like a one in three chance of not following Victoria down the sh#t hole. Maybe we'll be lucky. Maybe not as the odds are against us.
What NSW does have going for it will be a strong public desire not to follow in Victoria's footsteps. Compliance will therefore be better. The odds for NSW (and Victoria) would be better if the NSW went into a quick 2 week lockdown (at Stage 3) NOW!