I was wondering why gold producers haven't been on a massive tear given the price of gold, and I found some useful & relevant info over at Macrobusiness. The article is behind a paywall so I will summarise:
- Real interest rates have room to fall further.
- Gold ETF flows are still very small.
- Assets under management (AUM) proportions dedicated to gold are still way down vs the previous peak (2.5% vs 9%).
- DXY is still very high.
- The GFC lows for the DXY were 24% below where we currently are.
- The last DXY bear market (2002 - 2011) sank 42% and gold rose 700%, if the DXY falls 20% then $3000 is totally foreseeable, but why stop there.
When the tide starts to turn I expect it to run for a couple of years and hopefully we will all have made a few bags from where we are currently.
Sellers, page-38
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