Hi I had exactly the same thought as you Wolfcreek that $35 is the next level for silver
but you can see when its downtrend started from the previous $50 spike that the range around $28 was support for awhile before it fell through. support on the big charts was around $12 which worked as ultimate support for the spike down. it ran the gauntlet down on the count
so it has now hit that $28 level and got through
it just needs to hold this level on the backtest and we are away again
the best lesson i take from the silver chart is to learn and then apply the hammer on the weekly and then monthly on all the commodity charts. they always seem to get hammered down before they change trend.
the hammer shows the trend change which is confirmed when it gets through the previous long term support. $20 for silver. we then get a mammoth green candle or two on the monthly before it settles down. are we there yet? hard to say.
you can see a few failed attempts at $20 before we had one almighty hammer down to that $12 target we identified years ago. then we have the doubling. a 100% gain. i suspect that was due to the lifting of the shorts by one notorious fund which has been prosecuted for suppressing the silver price
then if you go to the monthly you can see those beautiful fat green candles as it rises up and through the $20 barrier into blue sky
i have seen this so many times on so many commodities. sadly reality always seems to hit and they do retrace at some point but i know my limitations and i can't call it
will the shorts be replaced by the same fund that suppressed it for years? lots of people do work on that topic but i prefer to keep it simple
as i said last week i see it as 50 50 from here
i look at it as being happy we got it right
i see this spike up as being the same as the recent hammer down to $12
it is a spike up and at some point it will backtest
in the meantime happily all the specs are now running. i see the job as being working out the 10% that can thrive with genuine projects and rerate with decent macros
i posted on rms at the time of my battle with it from 3.9c then 5c then 8c then 13c then 40c then the real rerate and now $2
if anyone of the current crop can do that then it is worth a bit of carnage at this early stage.
nst ran from 10c. i didnt get on till 66c but you could tell by then it was going to work
so i intend to weed out and cull my specs from here and run with the ones that prove themselves up level from level
it is the exact opposite of most traders who sell the good ones for a few pips and hang on to the deadwood
90% fail. i am not good enough to beat the big boys. that is my limitiation but i have patience and the ability to outlast
i picked adt this year as a genuine chance to rerate
it has now doubled. yesterday sprotts got on board and took it up to the next level. so far it is a long term rerate happening now but we will see
@toastmaster is excellent at picking the next move. he picked dyl to fall to 23c which is where it currently sits
toastie any thoughts on silver and uranium if you are around still?
uranium?
i really dont see i need to do anything other than buy a swag of dyl and boe and sit on them for a year or two. they are due to run
i called silver over the last 2 years and my silver minnows are doing the job right here and it is weeding time
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