Albie, I presume you must be impressed with Taylor Collison's recommendation.
A quick glance of the (TC) report will reveal it for what it is worth!
Quoting TC: Cash (M) as at 31/10/08 $59.3m FACTS: In the AGM Peter Cook stated: “At the end of September our cash stood at $55.0 million and the funds from AstraZeneca of $4.2m were paid on 22 October”.
Peter Cook had committed to burn $15m for the HRV trial by 31 January 09. Yet our beloved TC forecast a cash balance of $59.3m as at 31/10/08. Put simply $55.0 million + $4.2m less September and October expenses somehow miraculously give a cash balance of $59.3m
Most Interesting : Quoting TC on the UK Order: "Likely that an order will be placed before any public announcement, given the allocated DH FY09 budget for influenza runs until the end of March"
Compare to: (Quoting TC too!)" The composition of Tamiflu® and Relenza™, included in the national stockpile, will not be announced until at least May 09".
It is trully cute that TC predicted the UK government will place an order before they (UK government) even know what they want to order!!
COOKED MATHEMATICS: QUOTE TC: “We understand the Japanese government has not yet determined exactly how to finance the entire stockpile purchase – despite the ¥59.8b (A$1.0b) allocated to the 2009 influenza preparedness budget". AND
"We have cut our FY09 Relenza™ royalty estimates by 23.1% to $17.6m, owing to the expected timing of the UK/Japanese orders into FY10. Accordingly, we have forecast $7.0m in FY09 UK royalties representing fulfilment of half the expected order, with the balance in FY10".
FACTS: BTA announcement on 24 Oct states: Relenza sales were $27.1m and indicative royalties were $1.9m for the 3 months ending 30 Sept 08.
MIRACLE: Thus despite the Japanese government have not finalise the funding, and the UK government will not announce the stockpile until AT LEAST May 09, TC forecast royalties of $17.6m for the year ending 30 June 09!! TC wants us to believe the $1.9m royalties will grow to $17.6m royalties is typical of Peter Cooked Mathematics
I let the above facts and mathematics Taylor Collison presented speaks for themselves
BTA Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
