the whole smallcap gold sector is breaking out, page-7

IMO C-note buybacks underpin a spot FV 4 - 6 platform creation in progress now ... tho it may not sit around at these levels for too long if POG confims breakout and threat of move toward all time highs and beyond.

Goldspec market will go beserk once POG is thru 930+ IMO.

DRA right shoulder platform beyond is 10 - 15 for mine and then we will be talking serious numbers further out if POG moves forward as the gurus believe thru to 2011/12. Thats the time range I have for my core holding and expect to see it a buck plus if POG does what I hope / expect it to do by then.

Its all whether u expect a deflationary depression of hyperinflationary depression based currency devaluations against the real stuff. Cheap insurance policy.

Danger with stox like this which have bee whacked so hard is u sell way too soon and then have to buy back HIGHER later. If u take a broad view and believe we have just seen completion of its second primary wave down in a 5 primary wave evolution since DRA / POGs lows earlier in the decade, then third primary (starting now IMO) can take it to new all time highs and fifth later may actually see blow-off before the Kondratieff cycle ends some time around 2014 (15 years from 1999 start).

Technos will guide us re what it can achieve if the fundos can justify.

On fundos, a USD500/oz margin on say 100,000 ozs pa average basis at say 700 mill share cap F/D would mean about 10 cps PFO before tax or sa about 7cps NET EARNINGS.

A USD 1000 / oz margin over cash costs would double that to 14 cps say.

U can apply whatever PER u like but I use PER 5 for base case smallcaps (easily justified with 10+ year project life as this) and can actually move to PER 10 in boom times.

So u can see the upside assuming no hidden "toxins" .... and again, buyback is a vote of confidence.

"Course I am only assessing up to a USD 1500 / oz mid term call ....... which in an increasingly hyperinflationary monetary supply world will only be a starting point anyway IMO.

Its all pretty well exposed IMO so easy to do the back of envelope numbers. The ADVANTAGE is it is ALREADY A PRODUCER and hence we can do the numbers like u can for a DOM eg .... and relatively speaking if u assume same "risks" inc management, DRA is sooooo undervalued .... and hence one might hope it can soon be rated more accordingly in relation to such market peers darlings.

Personally would like to see price pause base around 5-6 soon then breakout with POG into blue toward 10 - 15 range soon after. Leave what I really expect this can do later for later haha.

Lets see these techno platforms establish first and as supported by the improving fundos. Its all related to what POG is likely to do next.

IMBOOC