For the impatient and those worried MPL might miss the bus:
A reality check on development time
Ken Frazier, CEO of pharmaceutical giant Merck, was interviewed recently by Professor Tsedal Neeley from Harvard Business School. If there was ever a rational discussion on the topic in my view, it was this.
I will summarise his interview with the following bullet points.
- Developing a vaccine takes time, a lot of time. The fastest vaccine ever brought to market was for the epidemic parotitis (‘mumps’). It took Merck four years to produce this vaccine.
- The most recent vaccine created for a large viral outbreak was for the Ebola virus, which took 5.5 years.
- In the past 25 years there have been only seven truly new vaccines introduced globally. By new, that means that they were effective against a pathogen for which there had previously been no vaccine. Merck has developed four of those seven and the rest of the world three. There has been an enormous amount of work done in the field of prevention. Despite all this work, the world has been trying to develop a vaccine for AIDS since the early 1980s, and so far, without success.
- Developing a vaccine requires vigorous scientific assessment. Vaccines must be safe, effective, and durable. No one knows if any of the 160 programmes will produce a vaccine that is effective. This vaccine must work on billions of people.
- Lots of vaccines in the past have stimulated the immune system (just like the Moderna trial vaccine) but ultimately did not confer protection.
- When politicians suggest there will be a vaccine available by the end of 2020, they are doing the public a “grave disservice”.
- We do not want to rush the vaccine before rigorous science is done. We do not have a good history of introducing a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic. The swine flu vaccine did more harm than good.
- While we are working hard on a vaccine, the best preventative measures to limit the spread and infection of COVID-19 are good hygiene, wearing a mask and social distancing.
- The bigger challenge to developing a vaccine is distributing it to where it is needed most. In a time of ultra-nationalism, countries want to take whatever is available and use it in their own population first rather than offering it to populations globally at greatest risk.
- Developing a vaccine for 7 billion people has never been done before. Delivering it to 7 billion people is an enormous logistical challenge, especially to those communities who cannot afford it.
- This is a global pandemic. Unless all of us are safe then none of us is safe.
- The mobility of the world’s society poses a real problem. The EU has barred Americans travelling to Europe for a reason. Americans are not doing the things required to suppress the epidemic. Americans value liberty. It has been a strong theme through US politics for 200 years, largely because the US has two big oceans protecting it. This virus does not care about liberties. If people exercise liberty at the personal expense of others, then we cannot control this pandemic.
- America is 4% of the world’s population and 25% of the world’s infections. That’s scary.
- We need politicians with enough integrity to tell the truth. This time next year we will still be experiencing what we are experiencing now. Be prepared for that.
Just be conscious that it will be a miracle if it (the Moderna vaccine) is developed before the end of 2020, and if you believe Ken Frazier, 2025 is a more realistic time frame.
How good would MPL be if successful as it meets all of the criteria noted above primarily: production, safe, effective, durable, work on billions of people, distribution, deliverability and affordability.
It doesn't get any better than that guys
Jakjazz
Jakarta
(20min delay)