Well clearly the market currently agrees with you on the valuation.
Cadia accounts for the bulk of NCM’s cashflow but to say it accounts for the bulk of the valuation (ie market cap) is assumption. As for future production, even if Cadia did reduce production by 25% and subsequent increase in AISC its still has world leading metrics. And NCM has very credible plans to replace that production elsewhere, not to mention that the doomsayers have been forecasting the demise of Cadia for a couple of years now which hasn’t really come to fruition as predicted.
I totally agree with the points you make, as does Mr Market. I just don’t see them as justification for the entire value differential. I’m quietly confident that the tide is already turning.
NCM Price at posting:
$34.16 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held