Lottery Program

Yes Yes... much time on my hands... it was bound to happen as a Jumbo enthusiast.

My own lotto program, warts and all. The aim is to generate real time ticket sales data and hence work out the revenue/profit forecast for Jumbo for any given period.

To generate ticket sales we need to make a model for Jackpots for each draw, which then feeds into ticket sales, which itself then flows back to the odds of a Jackpot being won and how fast the Jackpot will grow. It's a feedback loop.

I've kept the growth rates constant (at the current levels seen), the program is set up so that it will automatically accelerate, decelerate or retain the same growth rate as more real time data is fed into the program.

Starting with Powerball:
The Program is set up to stimulate the same half year 1000 times and the average value for each draw is recorded. The Jackpot is capped at $200 million (At a Jackpot of $200m, each combination of numbers is expected to be covered 2.5 times in that one draw; the probability the Jackpot will exceed $200 million (exc. inflation) is about 1 in 65 years).



The program doesn't expect the very high Powerball jackpot value (started the half year with a run to $110m followed by a $150m jackpot run) reached in 1HFY20 to be exceeded until 2HFY22.


I love it. A testable prediction: 1HFY21 Powerball ticket sales is expected to cross the 1HFY20 Powerball ticket sales in December this year... this is despite the jackpot value being about $300m less at around the same date.