COVID-19 ARDS and ARDS Share Price Scenarios, page-375

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wombat777

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17/08/20

10:11

Post #: 46585421
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Originally posted by wombat777 ↑

A pump?

There's sound reasoning behind the P/E numbers used as there's a reason Biotechs can trade at a high P/E when they commercialise pipelines. That's because of the Year on Year revenue growth. The growth occurs as distribution scales through more and more hospitals year on year and then you also have the same sort of growth repeating in other regions (product sales or royalty streams expand into Europe, Asia, etc).

I provided an example of BLINCYTO. Year on Year revenue growth of 42% for 5 years (revenue went from USD $77M in the first year to USD $310M 5 years later.

Keytruda achieved year on year revenue growth of over 200% for 5 years (revenue went from USD $0.57B in the first year to USD $11.0B 5 years later).

So P/E of 40.0 to 70.0 is probably more realistic ( I used 20.0 to 40.0 to keep it conservative ).

If you look at a new mine going into production, they will ramp up to nameplate over 1-2 years and then level of production flatlines. Market is giving GOR a bit of a hard time at the moment because they are slow on exploration that will enable them to grow annual production.

It's the high year on year growth of new Biotechs approaching or entering production that drives the massive takeover premiums. Takeover premiums average at near 200% for this group.

View attachment 2394326
Mostly when mining companies get taken over the premium will be about 30%.

Expand

Correction Keytruda - Year on Year growth of just over 100% (average over the period).

Last edited by wombat777: 17/08/20

MSB Price at posting: $4.84 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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COVID-19 ARDS and ARDS Share Price Scenarios, page-375

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