GXY (ASX) Banter and General Comments

Originally posted by SeeTheWorld ↑

Great investigative work there. Well done.

So it seems by my understanding EV uptake is limited firstly, to those that already have a LP and looking to upgrade and then secondly to government controlled allocations of LPs. While, this second component seems to be at the hands of the major cities, the numbers are highly significant. So if only Beijing has 3 million people wanting to join the car market then nwe can see clearly how the government can control up or down total car sales.

So for example if China starts to fall behind in the EV race and they want to jump back on top or to simply turn around the auto downturn caused by covid all they need to do is release more plates in major cities.

In other words if the government really wanted to they could ensure EV growth continued YoY very easily. I guess the limiting factor is simply congestion and how many cars in a city is enough.

To forecast growth then we really need to look at the upgrade cycle to calculate the rate that upgrades to EVs would take place.

Interesting stuff

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Great observations! Yes it seems that they have great control over the numbers, since the demand is so much higher than the supply (of restricted license plates). It seems to make sense that if/as they further relax the restrictions on NEV plates, buyers would be lining up for EVs!
At least in the big cities where it seems that your chances of actually getting a plate in general is slim-to-none!
It’s a hard concept to grasp - having the money and wanting to buy a car but not actually being allowed to unless you win the “plate lottery”. I guess that’s what happens when your population size/density reaches such levels. Wow.
Afaik they (China) still have a target of 25% of new car sales to be EVs by 2025, so there is some serious growth ahead, and soon! 6-7m EVs for China in 2025 will be about 3x global sales numbers for 2019. With Europe going strong, we’re headed for some big figures imo.
Needless to say, the next few years will be nothing like the last few!

Imo
DYOR