What moved me from the bull to bear camp was this:
1. IMO Inability to deliver. Where is Moina? on the timetable a year ago it said consortium by August 2008. We should also have far more information about the depth, quality, opex for Wonarah then we have on hand now. The disclosure about 1m tonnes via Ninemsn rather than 3m as the ASX releases say is also not best-practice.
2. RP dropping. Seems to me a virtuous circle exists between the investors and management with a belief that Morocco can set the price at whatever they want. Even though Mosaic has closed plants and informed the market correctly of conditions, MAK remains quiet.
3. Biofuels. Oil price low does not help phosphate prices (2).
4. Broker-attack. Blaming a broker from a little-known firm for a down-day of your stock, then going on a BRR radio interview.
5. Bot-attack. Blaming bots for down-days... :)
At the end of the day, will the people with 100s of millions to invest believe the MAK story and have the same faith as those like Sigma? Unfortunately, I don't believe they will.
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