Well, FLT is done. Rest in peace - they'll be remembered alongside Sears and J.C Penny.
Despite the terribly written ASX announcements (FLT should change their publicists...), I can't understate what a significant red flag changing their accounting policy from traditionally separating general and client cash, to general and unrestricted cash. The only reason I can think of as to why they would have done this was to distort the fact that FLT does not have $1.9bn in cash as a significant proportion of that is cash held on trust for customers. $708mn of the $1.9bn in cash is money held on deposit to pay for customer's trips (client creditors). It's fairly easy to deduce client cash based on client creditors as they should be ballpark the same...Even if their cash loss improves by c.100% from c.$57mn to $30mn (i.e. volume improves by 40% from what it was in July to an average monthly TTV of $300mn), based on my envelope maths they can only trade for 10 months without breaching their debt covenants ($350mn in cash). This doesn't even consider the collapse of gross margin due to FLT losing air overrides and other kickbacks which are based on volume, nor the fact that the CY 2H is FLT's historically poorest performing half. To add pain to misery, once Job Keeper ends, their position deteriorates by an addition what? $15mn a month?
Sorry folks, I think FLT will be in VA by Christmas. I can't see the banks providing more liquidity given the environment. I also now understand why Skroo has been on TV lambasting the premiers about the border closures - if FLT can't stem the bleeding in AUS leisure where most of the cost base exists, it's all over red rover!
Even disregarding the above, do you really think a company in this much peril deserves an EV of $3.5bn? only 15% less than what it was pre-COVID? FLT should be worth a significant amount less - in the $3-$5 per share.
FLT's corporate business is a gem and will fetch a pretty penny, but unfortunately, the business at large is nothing more than a relic of the golden age of travel.
DYOR - above is my opinion only. Enjoy!
General Cash1 1,158,961 1 Working Capital (366,476) 2 Client Cash (Estimate, based on Creditor) 708,346 3 Client Cash (Creditors) (708,346) 4 Trade Receivable 319,596 5 Financial assets 36,321 6 Other current assets 214,415 7 Trade Payables (494,664) 8 Lease liabilities (134,219) 9 Other current liabilities (307,925) 10 11 Borrowings (462,182) 12 Current Borrowings (211,668) 13 Non-current borrowings (250,514) 14 15 Net Cash 330,303 16 Cash outflow per month (30,000) (Conservative, net of job keeper) 17 Months of trading 11.0mnths 18 19 Illiquid Real Assets 287,310 20 PPE 153,392 21 Other Assets 240,020 22 Other liabilities (106,102) 23 24 No Claims / Recourse 775,573 25 Intangibles 761,864 26 Investments 34,760 27 Right of Use Asset / LT Lease Liabilities (21,051)
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Last
$21.50 |
Change
0.500(2.38%) |
Mkt cap ! $4.751B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$20.98 | $21.58 | $20.89 | $24.77M | 1.158M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 27142 | $21.50 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$21.51 | 5517 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 27142 | 21.500 |
2 | 1046 | 21.480 |
1 | 2469 | 21.470 |
1 | 100 | 21.460 |
2 | 7414 | 21.440 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
21.520 | 1000 | 1 |
21.550 | 217 | 1 |
21.600 | 6293 | 9 |
21.610 | 250 | 1 |
21.620 | 2046 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 05/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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