Absolutely.
From what I expect is the trial is powered to account for a mortality rate of 35% in the control group and 20% in the treatment group for 300 patients, so yes I think we're going to see vastly better improvements than the more conservative estimates. This leads me to assume they are more interested in enrolling people at the lower end of the moderate ARDs spectrum (PaO2/FiO2 < 150 mmHg), since the mortality rate is higher the lower the PaO2/FiO2 ratio.
Remember, the patients are stratified according to moderate ARDs (PaO2/FiO2 >100 mmHg and ≤200 mmHg) and severe ARDs (PaO2/FiO2 <100 mmHg). A mortality rate of 60-80% applies to severe ARDs (skewed to the higher precentage). For moderate ARDs, the mortality rate is 35% if you include patients with a PaO2/FiO2 >150 mmHg and <200 mmHg, but is around 45% if you exclude those in this range. A more accurate estimate of the expected mortality rate depends on the median (and range) of oxygen saturation one would expect in patients recruited in our trials.
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