iron ore and gold specky here, page-105

I do agree with all that but I wouldn't take too much rationality into account. Tarkine wilderness protestors don't. They'll see it as the Government giving a green light to mining activities in that area which they want World Heritage listed. There's implicit costs in that because they WILL protest and sabotage, there's nothing surer. It will be appealed through the courts.

Then there's the political and fiscal risk to the Government. The EPA took a hard line with Shree last time around and Shree ignored the EPA and Court rulings in favour of abandoning the mine after just a few months. They need to bridge that trust gap now somehow and the Greens will use it to make the Government look silly if this is approved by the EPA unopposed.

The appearance of the Gov approving mining in the Tarkine, by a company known to be non-compliant and ignore rulings, would need to be done very quickly so there's enough space between now and the next election for people to forget.

It's a coin flip in my mind. Even with a pro-development Liberal Government in power.