afternoon push, page-14

new to this site but I have enjoyed all your comments on this stock.

bought in at 5c some time ago and then at above 3c and have been a good supporter for weeks.

I plan on holding to at least 2010 where i think the property mkt both locally and globally will significantly improve. Although my wife thinks I am extremely over committed to VPG....

IMO, the problem globally is that the recent crisis (past 6 months) is being referred to and related to past crisis. This is nothing like anything we have seen before... BUT, with communications and free, or partially freer capital mkts I think we will be over this at a greater speed than history dictates.

With extreme volatility in the dow/allords/nikkei etc it shows to me that people still have a degree of confidence but the uncertainty is killing them.

Although this thread is suppose to be about VPG, the following indirectly relates to the companies longer term support.

My thoughts on overnight cash rates is now for another big 100 point move. Ask me yesterday or last week and it would have been lower. Possibly 25 to 50bp. The reasons (and those that usually complain can now criticise me)

1. The RBA and Govt want to prevent US style large scale retrenchments as seen over the past few months. Continued aggressive rate cuts could help alleviate some of this risk to higher unemployment
2. Crashing asset prices risk further significant losses extending the crisis, and increasing the impact on Australian GDP
3. Housing is critical to most economies. Aggressive cash rate mvoes lower will help to keep borrowers happy and with greater demand for affordable housing.

One should ask do we want 10% unemployment and 5% inflation or 5% unemployment and 10% inflation over the short term (1 to 2 years). I prefer to be employed..... I can tell you, employment will be key to getting over this greater than anything else.

Also, most people aren't aware but banks have been keeping most of the aggressive RBA rate easings by bumping fees/margins higher over the course of the recent RBA moves. Corporate/Bus. Bank clients effectively are paying the same as they were 6 months ago (mostly), yet banks are receiving a higher 'risk adjusted' return through margin creep.

I know this for a fact working in the very industry that is bumping fees higher....

Overall, I see the crisis continuing, yet abating through h1 09. I have predicted the past 3 RBA rate cuts so feel good about the next being 100 bp yet who knows... it could be more.......Although if the RBA goes 25 to 50, this will not be enough to prevent large scale retrenchments...IMO

Anyway, this is no condemnation or criticism of any other writting so welcome replies, not rudeness as does appear at times.....

Good luck