A lesson to be learned, page-37

10 million tonnes of coal is a drop in the ocean, world thermal coal consumption is around 3 billion tonnes a year and still rising, albeit slowly and near its peak. Media and activists try to stir up fear by calling it a 'mega mine' but stage one is a moderately-sized mine by Australian standards,there are several Bowen and Hunter mines in the 15-20 Mtpa range. And even if it does reach its original planned capacity (which I don't think it will) it won't be anywhere near the coal production of the Bowen or Hunter coalfields.

And anyway, Adani's coal is earmarked for Adani's own power stations, displacing local low-quality coal. Galilee coal is also lower quality than WHC coal so won't be competing for the same markets if Adani did divert some.

WHC will be fine IMO, at worst a cap raising. For at least the last decade, every time there's been a crash in the coal market the activists have been crowing that this time it's permanent, and every time the price has recovered and the activists slink off to cry into their soy milk cornflakes. The exact same thing happened in the last price crash, in 2015-16. WHC was making a loss, carrying a billion dollars of debt and the share price bottomed at 33c.

And then just two years later WHC generated $500M NPAT, the shares were $5 and paying 50c dividends. Another two years and a big global pandemic and they're back down again. That's what happens in companies like WHC with a relatively high cost of production, they are highly leveraged to swings in the coal price. In WHC's case that means a 5x SP swing between cycle peak and trough - good returns if you can time it.