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Ann: AGL: Enters binding agreement to acquire Click Energy Group, page-19

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theInquisitor

453 Posts.

169

31/08/20

22:36

Post #: 46970314
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Originally posted by theInquisitor: ↑

I don't agree with your assumption that an acquiring MNO would only value AYS' immediate EBITDA but, as I've set out above, will also consider the EBITDA AYS generates for its own business through the underlying wholesale agreement. As long as the Network Supply Agreement with Optus is in place of course the immediate gain of an acquisition would be limited to AYS' modest margin but if AYS migrates its subscriber base to TPG's network Optus would lose some estimated $180m in revenue or $54m in EBITDA, so it's less about what they could gain but what they could lose.

What is equally important is the scale economies that Optus would lose if AYS migrated to TPG. In mobile networks where the access network (base stations, fibre backhaul, core network and the associated equipment) is not dedicated to individual subscribers but shared by the entire subscriber case an increase in subscriber base leads to lower cost per subscriber, hence higher efficiency and margin. The same way a decrease in subscriber base leads to lower efficiency and shrinking margin as the same cost is distributed among fewer customers.

That is why if AYS switched to TPG Optus would not only lose some $54m of EBITDA but also the economies of scale unlocked by the 0.83m AYS subscribers which form 7.9% of Optus' 10.5m subscribers. Even if we consider the lower APRU of AYS subscribers we can assume that Optus' expenditure per subscriber would grow by some 5% as the cost of the network needs to be spread among a smaller subscriber base. So there is a significant penetrating effect of AYS' subscriber base that directly affects the underlying MNO's margin. Singtel's financial reports don't provide enough detail for an accurate calculation but I would assume that losing the 830k AYS customers would cut their EBITDA by some $30m-40m p.a.
On the other hand, adding AYS' subscriber base to their network would unlock massive economies of scale for TPG who have only 5.4m subscribers which by the addition of 0.83m subscribers could grow by 15% leading to a similar increase of efficiency affecting its profitability and capability to expand its network and lure in further customers by lower tariffs.

So again, when you solely look at AYS' own EBITDA you totally ignore the massive impact their business is having on the underlying MNO. Given what is at stake here for Optus and TPG I expect a serious battle in the coming weeks which in the best case might lead to a soon takeover and in the worst case to a substantially higher EBITDA margin by a better Network Supply Agreement, the latter which could come into force immediately because AYS could demand instant improvement of conditions from Optus in return for extending the NSA early.

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P.S.: Just for clarification: I assume that if AYS migrated its customer base to TPG Optus would lose $54m EBITDA and additionally some $30-40m due to the negative scale effect on its network expenditure based on the smaller subscriber base. So in total $80m-90m p.a. are at stake for Optus.
If Optus acquired AYS they would secure these $80m-90m of margin and assimilate AYS' own EBITDA of $11.4m, so $90m-100m in total. But if AYS switchtes to TPG or is even acquired by them Optus would lose $80m-90m p.a. of EBITDA.

AYS Price at posting: 70.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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