oilers comaprison against elk

I have been mucking around with excel and have compared Elks share price to a basketful of Oilers that make up my home made index.

What it is showing me is the huge emotional price movement with the expectation of the Ryder Scott report and a CO2 agreement.

So what does the chart mean. My interpretation is that the current share price should be about 20c with a range from a low of 13c to a high of 26c. This would of course change with oil price .

There seems to be much more upside than downside. Then again I may be dreaming.