Great to see more positive EV numbers for August come through. The trend tells us more about what spod prices should do in the future compared to what happened on the Nasdaq last night.
Looking at some reported estimates from Tesla is interesting. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/03/tesla-delivery-estimate-q3-2020-140000-q4-2020-194000/ Q1: 89,000 Q2: 91,000 Q3: 140,000 (53% increase from Q2) Q4: 194,000 (113% increase from Q2 and 39% increase from Q3). So just in Q4 2020, for just Tesla alone they will need access to more spod than the first half of this year. Impressive to think about, especially when Berlin and Texas and Shanghai MY don't even come to play. So next year we can possibly double these numbers again.
If we look to China CAAM forecasts that in 2020, a total of 1.1 million New Energy Vehicles will be sold in China (slightly below 1.2 million in 2019). Considering the year we had that is pretty impressive.
If we look to Europe and just Germany CAM predicts 2020 sales of BEVs and PHEVs to rise 130% on year to 250,000. That is a lot of extra lithium and most of that will happen in this second half (some double counting will happen here with Tesla numbers from above). It is not going to slow down either with German car manufacturers planning to triple the number of EV models available. What about other European countries?
As far as I know spod/brine supply has not seen any major growth with C&M or minimum obligations being put to market.
All I know is a little market downturn today tell us very little about what will happen tomorrow. Those spod inventories must be coming down, or some major fishy business is going all. Good luck all!
GXY Price at posting:
$1.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
