As PM he should have survived with a nice margin. He never envisaged losing the seat was a possibility. Big mistake.
Simco, it is also my genuine belief he should have handed the reins over to Peter Costello. I concede that Costello was the real architect behind the achievments or success of their 10 years in office. A gross miscalculation with disastrous consequences for the most competent liberal at that time in Peter Costello. He deserved a crack at the top job but was denied it. Remember, Simco his own cabinet members wanted him to go but he forced their hand. Costello like Al Gore could understandably feel cheated.