utter carnage, page-13

I took a weeeeee hit on VPG and so I'm not an overly happy camper. Certainly worthy of revisiting some of my notes.

What on earth could possibly going wrong... I know...management say something....morons...why don't they just shut up????

Something does not ring true with VPG. I think today was somehow mischeiveous but I can't define who is the culprit. I know who is the victim .... lol

Some facts / interpretations ex 30 June 08 accounts... the last document which could be considered close to the truth:

1. VPG debt obligations as at 30 June 08 do not seem overly complex.
- Assets pledged reported valuation 1.51Bn excluding most of VPC loan portfolio. This might be interesting subject to valuation outcomes.
-Maturity/rollover averaging about 3.6 years. Immediate 12 months required AUD45.5m re Scarborough ... presumably already paid; sequel payment of 76M due in September...the subject of this mornings announcement...hmm. About another $270M due in 09/10 and/or 10/11.
- As at 30 June of 1.8B facility available, only $1.2B drawn. Possible with HBOS saga residual line of credit withdrawn.

2. Good working capital position reported. Someone noted that supposedly no issue with receivebales. Therefore $639M of current assets should be adequate to service $281M current liabilities. Derivatives assets/liabilities might have caused concern... not clear

3. Forex. GBP moved unfavourably but interesting Euro moved favourable. NZD ... who cares...we'll just buy the country if this proves to be a problem...lol. Overall wouldn't be surprised with a fairly nominal forex movement p/l impact...may even carry over to next half given GBP carnage only very recent...last 10~15 days

4. Valuations...hmmmm. My best guess given 30 June 08 portfolio would be a loss on revaluation at about $227M including provision for frorex movements. Real guess ladies and gentlemen basically assuming a global 25% devaluation...

5. Residual sources of risk are value of devlopment properties $261M; carrying value of loan portfolio $637M...who is the singly largest borrower identified at about 250M?? Does anybody know? HBOS doing a belly up doesn't help but maybe Llloyds might take the same view as Aussie bankers... "no good slamming the commercial property sector with a portfolio of dead properties."

My take... there is nothing in this 30 June 08 report which should sound alarm bells and certainly (assuming HBOS/Lloyds being sensible) no real need for crisis liquidity management. The balance sheet under most armageddon assumptions stills looks to hold positive value...

The business was mature so I can't imagine that forseebale cash burn would have been an issue...

So why on earth are they using script to settle a god dam director debt???? Only if loans and receivables are totally worthless could I contemplate this transaction...

The investor centre has IMO some creative information memorandum on the way or ASIC ought to have a chat. In retrospect this possibly more evidence of ASX inability to build and operate an efficient market...let's assemble a global market place...pick a country.

Cheers

Any feedback? I think we need to talk to these people...

My rantings . DYOR.