Rainfall 3 months from now - at least 75% chance, page-78

Is it the state of Australia/mainland China relations? This would be irrational since GNC does not sell a majority of its grains - far from it - to communist China.

Is it others apart from Norges Bank shorting the stock?Is it the historical view that bad years outnumber the good, and despite optimistic predictions shareholders are nervous that there'll be some climatic 'disaster' between now and when the grain should be delivered to silos?

Perhaps a perception graingowers will hold their output on farm and not sell to GNC, or sell to a competitor?

Or worries re coronavirus (paranoia!) that the world population will decrease so much that there'll be markedly lower demand for grain more than compensating for lower tonnages from poorer EU/perhaps USA crops? Note that this winter, due to lack of a traditional 'flu season', there were fewer deaths in Australia compared with winter 2019, not that you'd know if listening to the daily epistles from Daniel Andrews or Annastacia unpronounceable up in the Sunshine State.

As you can see, I'm of little help because I don't know the answer.