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13/09/20
12:40
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Originally posted by specvestor:
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Few things on my mind: We had $6m that was willing to invest @0.125c now been returned into retail investor accounts (at least it was in my account today), unsure if that will translate directly back into more purchases. While the recent ann's have been positive, we're looking for some larger contracts to be signed ($5m+ range) as well as the payment for the outstanding Saudi deal to be confirmed. I don't think they'll make an announcement on that alone, "look guys we got paid". Otherwise we will wait for the qrtly to show and if still unpaid, likely need to discount that receivable in valuations. Note: It's my view the payment delay caused DRO to need to CR at a low price which would have otherwise been avoided. It is a shame for existing holders who were diluted but given the recent ann's and price movement, i presume much would have been forgiven. For the Institutional's who invested $7.5m @ 0.125c we may have seen them exit as their share have been on market since 13 August while the $9.5m raised for retail investors was trading only on the 12th of September. However, as we don't know who the holders are we can't know if they are long term investors or speculative investors. Significant volume was seen on 3 Sept, 11 Sept and 12 Sept. I still can't make heads or tails of the 3 September volume which is annoying as I would have expected a significant holding disclosure to have arrived. A significant holding would be ~20m shares so the 3 Sept volume was not a single buyer pushing the market higher and the Institutional placement had at least 4 participants. Will be interesting to see if we get any significant holding disclosures on Monday or Tuesday for Thursday and Fridays volume action respectively. I personally don't take a lot of queue's from Institutional money but I do consider it interesting. My view, and i'm largely guessing here, is our Friday volume was impacted by profit takers. We may see continued profit taking as the less active traders review their holdings over the weekend and choose to take those sweet gains. I'd have been one of these myself, if the CR hadn't been scaled back leaving me with less than i'd ideally hold. Hoping we get a few weeks breather so some of the unbelievers can drop the SP down to 0.16c or lower on weak volume so that I can boost those holdings back up. However, given the momentum swing in sentiment that the announcements has brought, the fact the raise was significantly over-subscribed and the media coverage has highlighted DRO I think a push into mid-to-high 20c is the likely outcome of the week ahead.
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The good news is, Saudi will pay. The bad news is, I have seen situations when the economic cards are down in Saudi and they take up to 2 years to pay. Many projects are on hold in Saudi due to Corona, and government spending has been cut over many sectors. I am aware of cases where orders have been placed on Vendors and the Vendors have since been advised that no payment will be paid for at least a year. (I have seen it take as long as 2Yrs Example = 2008-2010). Vendor's don't like it however they put up with it because when the cards turn, they eventually get paid and also receive many more orders which are paid in accordance with contract terms when times are good. Oil drives Saudi and this years forecast spending has certainly taken a hit, therefore their bank accounts are currently looking a bit grim. Good years coming guys and gals.