I think you need to bear in mind that
@Lies&damnlies posts his analysis across a range
of stocks with quite a technical perspective. I have found his post to be pretty well balanced
and quite transparent regarding his general methodology of investing/trading. He has avoided
the all too common prophetic type lingo and put forward what he feels to be likely scenarios.
I am well familiar with his methodology in charting as is similar to what I used to use for a number
of years. There is nothing intrinsically wrong with his analysis. I for one have enjoyed reading
his posts regardless of where I have a different opinion.
It is very easy to post bullish interpretations on one single stock that happens to go through
a period of unusual bullish strength and look like a superstar. Even across a number
of stocks one can land up looking to be something special during a strong bull market, but
get destroyed when markets (or a stock) reverse their trajectory...
Give me almost any chart and I can provide a technical argument for being bullish and
then turn around and give one for being bearish, especially if I get to pick and chose my
indicators and time frames to suit my bias.
You never
know what is going to happen in the market, ever.
BRN has recently performed in a way that is the exception and not the rule in terms of
the distance traversed without more significant retracements (I'm not complaining lol)
He has mentioned in the past that he was a "stats man" so you cannot fault him on
mentioning what he thought to be unlikely. The fact that it did not happen does not mean it
was not likely to... Probability distributions do have extremes and they do happen.
A technically orientated trader has a set of rules that are designed to help decipher
markets in a way that pays of over time and over a range of securities. It is always focused
on managing risk (which includes protecting gains) and letting winners run as much as one
can justify. For people trading (as opposed to pure fundamental investments) many different
stocks, recouping initial investments after an exceptionally strong move is not a bad way to
go in the long run.
It is a more statistically orientated approach than pure fundamental investing.
I highly recommend you do some research into the concepts of win rate, and risk/reward for
a better understanding of the reality of technical analysis in and of itself.
These are two decent reads:
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/trend_of_the_day/2013/06/18/What_is_a_Good_Win_Ratio.htmlhttps://www.tradeciety.com/why-i-prefer-systems-with-a-low-winrate/
(20min delay)