wet response, page-12

Marben,

The vote on the board-change may affect the "for sale" sign idea you raised.

If the backroom boys do gain control of the board it could mean they will be courting offers rather than waiting for them to arrive.

I also think their courting will generate interest as the inevitable media attention over this resource statement will result in several board rooms around the world discussing what is happening at EXT.

I agree with what you said in your other post "isn't likely to make a bid unless they think it's got a fair chance of succeeding".

Yes. Prior to offers being made, many informal discussions will take place, no doubt HAVE been taking place for some time.

The tone of those discussions will either give incentive or not to progress. If the backroom boys do gain control, the tone of discussions will be different.

It is a dilemma for RIO.

On the one hand there are clear synergies, the two companies are ridiculously well matched.

On the other hand, RIO NEEDS control if they are to progress.

They can't accumulate on market in a meaningful way. They were lucky to find RAB in dire straits but will they be lucky enough to find some other major holder like that again? Probably not.

So how?

They will have trouble justifying (or financing) a cash buy, a scrip-only offer seems the only solution apart from a JV, but how will scrip or JV compare to others out there who will have the cash?

I am pretty sure that in the presence of multiple interested parties the final accepted offer will be circa US$2 billion, the only thing I can't be sure of is the structure of the winning offer.