Regarding growth AF has said many times it is a SAAS model business, so the key metric is ARU(Average Revenue per Unit).
Which is currently circa $100-200 per unit. So they have to sell 10000 units to generate $1Million in revenue.
Suspect there aren't too many ASX or global listed SAAS businesses that command this range of ARU.
Spirometry/CT Chest volumes even in a small hospital radiology Department could easily be 1000 each per year, would be 3-5 times that in a large city teaching hospital say up to 5000-10000 units per annum per major centre. Would only need 1-2 large hospitals to move to this platform to generate 10K units sold. The real task will be negotiating with larger US health insurance providers, which would give 4DX significant scale. (It may be more realistic to expect an uptake rate initially of 20% of testing volumes?).
Agree that 2021 will see significant growth in SAAS units sold, each 10K units sold is circa $1Million in revenue.
Suspect once it hits circa 100-200K units per annum in sales will recoup development costs and be cash flow positive.
Expect in the long term will be a significant generator of free cash flow. Hence dividend stream.
In the current low yield (low Interest rate environment) this will be very attractive for investors and suitors alike.
In the next 1-2 months an announcement about Medical Research Future Fund(MRFF) on Low/Zero Radiation Dose imaging methodologies which ALHI is an applicant. The 10 shortlisted recipients of first round offers of $1M are eligible for grants of up to $50 Million.
Suspect the passage of time and circumstance since the first round offers were made has not diminished the importance or profile of lung health in the psyche of the government or public's mind?.
In the short term MRFF announcement will be accretive to SP if positive.
However successful deployment of the SAAS model at 1% penetrance of the US diagnostic market (23 Million tests per annum CT and Spirometry combined) would give annual units sold of 230K per 1% market penetrance, which equates to revenue of $23Million per 1% market penetration.
Depending on the success or otherwise of uptake it will not take long for these metrics to be accretive to the share price.
IMHO.
K
(I hold).
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