IHL 0.00% 4.1¢ incannex healthcare limited

Ann: Options Exercise, page-64

ANNOUNCEMENT SPONSORED BY PLUS500
ANNOUNCEMENT SPONSORED BY PLUS500
CFD TRADING PLATFORM
CFD Service. Your Capital is at risk
CFD TRADING PLATFORM CFD Service. Your Capital is at risk
ANNOUNCEMENT SPONSORED BY PLUS500
CFD TRADING PLATFORM CFD Service. Your Capital is at risk
  1. 1,869 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1472
    Oils Sales is not the main focus of IHL... the biotech and IP side is.

    But nevertheless, Q2 was the first quarter which solely had revenues from the oils biz.

    To be honest, I dont think margins on oils on any company are great. No generic oils have great margins, its all imported product from EU/Canada.
    AGH despite being the largest seller burns massive amounts of $$ to get sales, very unprofitable. From a chat I had with Joel a while back I brought this up and he said the company is well aware of this and does not want to copy their strategy, focusing on sustainability and patient retention instead of burning $$$ on patient acquisition instead. This can be seen in our cashburn compared to AGHs. Most of our cashburn is on R&D, so the biotech side of the business. When it comes to oil products alone, it is very obvious that our costs compared to revenue is actually very low in comparison to AGH. In laymans terms, for every $ we make on the oils biz, we spend less $ to get that sale compared to AGH.
    Hence Joel and the company are indeed executing that sustainability and retention strategy and are NOT playing a fool's game.

    The September Quarter is almost over and with the insane growth that we have recieved in the business I would not be surprised to see 1M+ in revenues in the Q3 quarterly report. Consider that AGH last quarter pulled in ~1.5M in revenues with a far worse cashburn spent. This is not a wild thought, IHL went from ~100K to ~640K+ in sales in a single quarter thanks to Cannvalate. Going from 640K to 1M seems fair.
    If IHL achieves 1M in oils revenues this quarter, I expect a extremely conservative re-rate to over double where we are now.
    Consider that AGH is 135M MC atm. IHL 44M MC. If we can achieve 2/3 of their oils sales ignoring the IP side of our business is it not fair for us to be capped roughly 2/3 of them?

    Cash-wise AGH has a larger war chest with 10M in the bank. But post-IHLOB expiry if most of it gets converted we should be looking at a war chest of 12M. It's my personal theory that many investors and fundies arent biting IHL atm because of our comparatively low cash. Looking beyond the ARDS and OSA trials, to TBI, TMJ and the future we would need to be more cashed up than we are now. But after the IHLOBs expire... we would be certainly cashed up and ready to move.

    tldr
    Ignoring the ramifications of a successful ARDS FDA EUA and/or a successful Phase 2B OSA Human Trial that should both garner results by this year's end, just going off the growth of the oils business alone there is at least a bag's worth of upside from these levels at very conservative levels.
    No speculation, simply basic peer comparison based off revenues and growth and cash in bank.

    Now throw in the potential for IP success... considering that the last major addition to FDA EUA for COVID was Remdesivir by Gilead Sciences which is a 81B company. And for OSA, Phase 2B in a market with no existing pharmacotherapy? Phase 2Bs typically add on 9 figures worth of market cap if successful. So.... risk/reward wise... this is the opportunity that is present here. All this can be achieved before the year's end.

    And you got people wondering if a few pips is going to make a difference.... People like @Chaya and @MrFantastic are going to clean up once speculation becomes reality.
    Last edited by Exalted: 19/09/20
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add IHL (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.