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16.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

Ann: Apus Prospect Update, page-45

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RoyE

1,859 Posts.

1004

20/09/20

15:00

Post #: 47483607
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Originally posted by psi81: ↑

Based on CVN's success in the area I reckon the odds of a sister are greater than 50%.

The odds of another decent-sized geological success in the area would absolutely be greater than 50%. But that's another thing worth pointing out - COS in this context refers to Chance of Geological Success - ie if they drill it and find it's full of gas, it counts as a success but might not be large enough to be an economic success, as gas is much harder to monetise.

Chance of Commercial Success requires multiplying by another risk factor, usually related to MEPS (Minimum Economic Pool Size) which is the chance that the hydrocarbons you find are in a pool big enough and valuable enough (ie liquids) to develop. So the odds on drilling at Apus finding a large enough oil leg to justify development is somewhat less than the 25-30% COGS.

But hopefully targeting the shallower structures they are able to find another nice big fat oil leg. I personally think it's likely that there are more Dorados in the Bedout, and I also think we haven't seen the last of the M&A activity in the basin.

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Thank you psi for your great posts - very informative and myself and I'm sure a lot of others have learned a lot about the process of ranking drill targets, COS etc.

CVN Price at posting: 20.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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