You are assuming that there weren't millions of unsymptomatic carriers floating around in the months leading up to the spike.
Its a tipping point or complex system. Only takes one variable to change in a complex system for a tipping point to be triggered.
This is also why climate science and football can also be topics of endless debate, both are complex systems, which allow for many different opinions to be given the impression they are right, all because of a couple of trigger variables.
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