japanese reit article 29 jan 2009, page-10

Thanks Netaholic, always a bit of luck involved between a good call and a bad one.

BJT are in a similar boat to RJT but with with debt roll-over further out, better property portfolio probably and short term liquidity. CKT has even longer dated debt profile and is thus safer bet short term.

As with all these JREIT plays it is about return of capital not capital return that is important right now. The big boys are obviously talking with their feet and don't like the "5 year recession risk" and deflation possibility. If this recession becomes a deep depression then it will matter little whether debt rollover is 2010, 2011 or 2012... they will all meet their maker as RJT and GJT have done. RJT was early proof that extreme NTA above share price means little in the face of risk and uncertainty.

They all look like great value on the surface but they are "peers" in a small group. How can one share price stay high when the others fall over? Rock bottom price becomes a target or sell the higher price play and buy that already in the dog house becomes an arbitrage.

One year of dividends hardly compensates for the high risk of having the share price halve over a week on a bit of bad news or covenent breach (BJT just dropped 25% in under a week on no news). Conversely they could make new holders a fortune with a quick turn around in credit markets, asset pricing or sentiment. Basically I am saying they are for the brave only not dividend seeking retirement money. If you want to play my view is that RJT at >50c NTA and trading sub 1c looks like a better punt than say BJT $1.30 NTA vs 30c share or CKT $1.91 vs 28c share. Still high risk long term punt because I can't see anything changing around sentiment as Japan heads into the biggest recession since 1990.

All above is off the top ramblings and not to be taken as advice, DYOR and act according to personal risk profile etc.

cheers