are we in yet macca, page-6

posted on other thread.

but same question, how much of the forcast decline was already factored into the former pe of 5 when it was at 2.50??

if none, then you can expect 1.40 pe 5 for this forcast.

And then momentum, what will reverse it?

It has to get to this level, 1.40, if there was no factoring in of lower forcast expectations.

I suspect there was some, but a 30% dive in the market, suggest a lot of large volume holders, were suprised, and thought that worse to come.

For all those that rushed out yesterday on the open at 1.85,,,what of it? They expected, rightly so, that it would get worse before it got better.

As i posted yesterday, and add to that a bear market sentiment, when you see a massive fall, what is it followed by the next few days? Is more to come? is a small rally, dead cat bounce for it, to followed then with a further fall.

Or, will the market rush in like a white knight and rally it back to a higher pe than it was before (which even at todays price of 1.68 on lower forcasts is above pe5 previous.),,,,answer, not in a bear market. That hope is poorly placed IMO.

It needs to fall another 10-20% and approach 1.40-1.50 before, there is a solid argument for a fundemental rally.

It is a grey area to ask how much was factored in to the previos pe5, but one thing for certain, if you are a shorter, you will say, worst case, none, and so the pe5 is at 1.40. Only at that level, can you say with some rational, that the shorters will be a bit shy of pushing it lower, selling to evaporate, and small rally, and base to return to some strength of 1.80-2.20 heading into the 6m ahead.

Who knows, i cant read an irrational market, all i can try and do is focus on any fundemental level, and while the market will dance around it, it is a dart on the board, how close to the bullseye, time will tell.

cheers