Will be another value add here eventually when Savannah North comes on
Panoramic Resources (PAN) PDF
Leaving 2020 in the rear view mirror
SPECULATIVE BUY (maintained) | current price: A$0.10 | target price: A$0.14(previous: A$0.508)
§Following PAN's “annus horribilis” in FY20, the company is meeting or exceeding underground development targets in FY21 to date.
§We see the updated life of mine plan as a conservative document with room for management to deliver significant upside.
§PAN, and the nickel sulphide market generally, is a battery metals story as nickel supply fragments with separate stainless steel and battery demand.
§We see the sector as ripe for consolidation and PAN as an attractive target.
§Western Areas remain an active participant in Savannah development studies thanks to their shareholding and 50% representation on the technical committee.
Moving on from FY20
PAN is now well advanced in its planned FY21 activities, with underground contractor Barminco resuming site activities in late July. Development is well advanced on the ventilation access drive, expected to be completed this month, with RUC mobilising shortly after to complete the ventilation raise boring. This development, which plagued the company in FY20, will provide enough ventilation to support full scale mining operations.
Conservative plan shows strong upside potential
The updated life of mine plan and Reserves shows a 16-year mine life producing an average 8kt of nickel in concentrate per year. Importantly, we view the plan as conservative, with the company balancing historical production figures with worst case forecast scenarios, demonstrating the project's robust economics and room for outperformance. See sensitivity discussion on page 5 of this report.
Nickel sulphide remains a battery metals story
Nickel demand continues to be dominated by stainless steel production, with this demand now largely met by nickel pig iron (NPI) production. While laterite ores (think Murrin Murrin) can be refined to battery grade product, nickel sulphide concentrate such as PANs can be more readily and cheaply refined to a battery grade. We expect competitive tension in the downstream market will help PAN achieve better economics from smelters than they have enjoyed to date, and this demand to also support a rising nickel price going forward.
Our view – WA nickel is a consolidation story
Outside BHP's Nickel West operations, WA nickel producers are small scale in a global context with several mines nearing the end of their life. Recent corporate activity in the sector, such as IGO's aborted takeover attempt for PAN and investment in MCR, WSA's purchase of a 19.9% stake in PAN, and Black Mountain Metals and Squadron/Andrew Forrest each taking 20% in POS (Forrest associated companies still hold ~5% in PAN and a 15% stake in MCR) speaks to growing interest in acquiring nickel sulphide assets. Our price target is on 1x P/NAV given it has a proven track record from previous operation, but expect PAN would attract a premium to this price in a corporate transaction.
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