You might want to convert the data into Market Capitalisation to see the last two numbers are a 'pipe dream' in that time framework, and in particular if the configuration LTR has for mining is either 2mtpa or 5mtpa. Here I will just post this valuation and let yourselves work out what spodumene price you need and what P/E ratio is needed for those latter two pie in the sky forecasts. Keep valuations real - Post #:
44658142In terms of the embedded post, and presuming your previous PFS assumption of A$974 per tonne spodumene assumption holds, but scaling up to 5 mtpa, and using a low opex cost assumption (an assumption I am making despite the underground stage), at P/E15 might get to a SP of $1.30 (in production) at best (assuming all those variables come in). P/E10 is 90c DFS will be interesting here. Need a much higher configuration - 10 mtpa plus
Wild card here is finding something decent at Moora.
For lithium, it is about demand.
It is easier to 'ramp' up brownfields deposits in production and/or on care and maintenance (assuming they have the right resource and therefore it is about price) than bringing into production a new greenfields development, especially for companies that are seeking to move from the exploration stage to mining stage, and have no other mines in operation.
Any delay in production adversely affects valuations because from an NPV perspective production dates are further pushed out, with consequent adverse impacts on SP. If production is moved out to the right, and a greenfields development is not slated to come into production until after 2025 then its valuation is less than one coming into production before 2025, all other things been equal. To be frank, given the delay to the former KDR and Wodgina coming onstream (they both have delayed FID) both WES and Albermale overpaid respectively is the point. Valuations are based on future earnings, so any valuation, noting time value of money, at this point in time where spodumene prices are low means any TO will be a low ball TO price, hence why your own BOD keep referring to taking this to mining - as mining, in these circumstances, extracts maximum value for SHs willing to wait for a return.
As for vertical intergration, interesting, I suspect if any verbal offers have been made here, i.e. the phone call but nothing in writing, they would have been knocked back - why, well any offer now will be low ball is my point, given you get low ball offers when prices are low, dppsite what people may think is future potential - or another way to put it, when Albermale bid for Wodgina and WES for KDR they were meant to be in production this year or next (i.e. the demand opportunity) but that hasn't yet eventuated for their entry, hence why they overpaid is my point.
The other day I stated on here that LTR's current rise in SP is Moora related and got slated by a few posters including this one, who then posts on LSA saying exactly what I said here on here - Post #:
47606300As for Elon and the talk of Nevada treat that as chest thumping. He is seeking cheap inputs and is saying if I don't get A I will do B. Try producing the quality specs from clays for EV batteries at reasonable cost - calling his bluff there. He is bluffing.
I am ready for the feedback LOL. Have a good weekend all. My view above also holds for the stock I hold, and hence why for the next few months best to focus on other stocks, but the wildcard for valuation here is Moora.
All IMO
(20min delay)