baltic dry index rises sharply by 182 to 1498, page-18

Acer, yeah, I agree on the technicals, but technical rallies can be furphies.

Conix is obsessed with the Baltic Dry Index. its like finding a correlation between the price of fish and the El Nino, and saying to invest in Australis Aquaculture, a company with pretty pooey fundamentals. Sure, the technicals might be good but they are either responding to the BDI or the underlying fundamentals, or something else - like, for instance, the decision of BHP to maintain its dividend rate.

Once the party is over - and there's no way to tell when it is - the lights will come on and the fundamentals will reassert themselves. If you hold and BHP goes to the bottom of the channel - even a teench below - will you cut and run or say "Oh well, its just a blip, we'll be up at the top of the channel in no time"?

One day you'll be wrong. One day we'll see the BDI finish its own technical recovery which is basically following a third underlying fundamental which is probably BHP shipping off stockpiles on its docks for firesale prices, which is NOT a good result for BHP's underlying forward estimates.

Which is the dog and which is the tail? Conix is betting the BDI is the tail and BHP is the dog, but this is a tail wags dog argument and ridiculous. If BHP/Rio/Vale is driving the BDI up by price slashing to move stock and generate cashflow, then you are inesting in a symptom of your own company cruelling itself.

Either way, I think that there are more problems ahead for prices, and profits and following a third-hand derived index to invest is suicide.