Well I am also a commercial pilot and what your friends says about 25years is complete utter dribble and scare mongering. I’m sorry but there is nothing more self centred and pessimistic in aviation than a stereotypical Emirates old captain. Nothing but utter bull flies from their mouthes on the flight deck as they come to grips with their fourth marriage breakdown and the fact they have been bored living in a desert for the last 20years.
Aviations resilience to weather the storms is unlike very few industries worldwide. Aviation is so agile in the way it operates. Not to mention its intrinsic link to the way a contemporary society does business. I believe it will comeback in the coming couple of years, but for now we wait at the holding point for takeoff clearance.
”Positive rate, gear up”
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