Total credit created: 400 billion Yuan in November 2008, 700 billion in December 2008, and 1.2 trillion Yuan in January 2009. And we do know that economic cycles are directly related to credit cycles.
Another indicator: have a look at the Shanghai and Shenzhen share indexes, if the empirical proposition that share market leads the real economy by about 4 to 6 months is also valid for China, then we are looking at more evidence that support earlier rebound of the Chinese economy.
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Shanthar Pathmanathan, MD
Shanthar Pathmanathan
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