chewy tuesday, page-39

Volt, you have some interesting ideas regards the additive nature of waves....I have been thinking along the same lines but have been quite taken by the idea of Kondratieffs Kwave winter collapse, The period before this, through the 90s, very much fits with his description of the Kwave autumn so it very much stands to reason this is the kondratieff collapse. Armstrong has his nice little 8.6 year H&S looking wave ticking through the economy but something far more powerful is forcing the market down whilst armstrong says we should be heading up at this time.

One point,I think both Armstrong and Kondratieff's waves are more in reference to the underlying economy than the market. A little while ago I did a spot of anecdotal research on that...Armstrong says we topped out in Feb 2007. If you google news items of feb 2007 the language is all like "when the housing bubble finally bursts" and by march 2007 it is more "now that the bubble has finally burst".....but as we know the stockmarket continued to climb a wall of worry for most of 2007. I am thinking now Kondratieff's collapse began with the peak of Armstrongs cycle (or the busting of the US housing bubble) which means we are 2 of 3 years through now.

What I fear is that my observations are that in either a bull or bear the biggest move comes at the end. In 16 months the dow has lost 6000 points. Are we to see a speeding up now of the collapse in the final phase ?? It would seem your cycle analysis may support that view.

I get John Mauldin's email...don't always read it but did the other day. A couple of years ago he was a moderate bear believing in a mild recession followed by a multi year muddle through below average growth period. He has now changed his mind and believes 2009 will be aweful and we will the have the same multi year muddle through period but from a much lower base.....sounds like a Kwave winter to me.